The next major round of global climate diplomacy is set for Antalya, Turkey, where the United Nations climate conference known as COP31 is scheduled to take place in November 2026. The summit arrives under an unusual arrangement and against a backdrop of persistent gaps between the world's climate pledges and what the science says is required.
An unusual shared presidency
COP31 stands out before it has even begun because of how its leadership is structured. Turkey is set to physically host the conference and the World Leaders Summit in the Mediterranean city of Antalya, while a senior Australian minister is slated to lead the negotiations themselves. The compromise resolved a long standoff between the two countries, both of which had sought to host, and it places Australia's climate diplomacy at the centre of the talks even as the gavel sits in Antalya.
The arrangement also elevates the voices of Pacific island nations, which have campaigned alongside Australia and which face some of the most immediate threats from rising seas. A pre-summit gathering in the Pacific is expected to help shape the agenda before delegates travel to Turkey.
Climate finance takes centre stage
If one theme is likely to dominate COP31, it is money. Developing countries have long argued that they cannot decarbonise their economies or protect their populations from climate impacts without far greater financial support from wealthier nations that contributed most to historical emissions.
Negotiators will be working to operationalise commitments on climate finance, including the framework agreed at earlier summits for scaling up support. Bridging the gap between headline pledges and money that actually reaches vulnerable communities remains one of the most contentious and unresolved questions in the entire process.
Adaptation and loss and damage
Beyond cutting emissions, COP31 is expected to focus heavily on helping countries cope with impacts that are already locked in. Adaptation finance, which funds defences such as sea walls, drought-resistant agriculture and early-warning systems, has historically lagged far behind funding for emissions reduction.
The summit is also expected to advance work on loss and damage, the mechanism designed to help countries recover from climate disasters they did little to cause. For small island states and low-lying nations, progress on these issues is not abstract policy but a question of survival.
The emissions gap problem
Underlying every negotiation is a stubborn arithmetic problem. The collective pledges submitted by countries still fall short of what would be needed to hold global warming to the levels targeted under the Paris Agreement. Each summit therefore carries pressure for governments to strengthen their national emissions-reduction commitments.
COP31 will test whether countries are willing to raise ambition at a time of competing economic and geopolitical pressures, from energy security worries to slow global growth. The credibility of the entire process rests in part on whether the gap between promises and policies begins to close.
The Pacific in focus
With Australia steering negotiations and Pacific nations playing a prominent role, the needs of small island developing states are expected to feature prominently. These countries have repeatedly warned that for them, the difference between current and stronger targets is measured in habitable land and viable freshwater supplies.
Their presence is a reminder that climate diplomacy is not only about distant temperature thresholds but about communities confronting rising tides, intensifying storms and shifting weather patterns today.
What success would look like
By the time delegates leave Antalya, the markers of a successful COP31 will likely be judged on a handful of questions: whether climate finance commitments become more concrete, whether adaptation and loss-and-damage support gains momentum, and whether countries signal a willingness to strengthen their emissions targets. None of these is guaranteed, and climate summits often end with compromises that satisfy no one entirely. But the gathering in Turkey represents another chance to narrow the distance between the world's stated ambitions and its actions.