India's economy is projected to grow 6.6% in 2026-27, with a recently signed trade deal with the United States expected to provide an incremental boost.
The trade deal
Under the agreement announced earlier in the year, "reciprocal" tariffs on Indian goods were reduced from 25% to 18%. Analysts estimate the lower tariffs could add roughly 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, supporting exporters across manufacturing and services.
Growth drivers
The RBI's quarterly growth path points to resilient momentum, underpinned by domestic demand, government capital expenditure and steady private consumption. Manufacturing and services continue to expand.
Risks
Economists caution that global supply-chain disruptions, elevated logistics costs, higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, and weather-related risks could temper the outlook in the months ahead.
Sources: Goldman Sachs, Trading Economics.