The US labour market remains broadly resilient, but signs of cooling are emerging. The unemployment rate averaged about 4.3% in the first quarter of 2026.
A gentle rise ahead
Economists expect the jobless rate to edge up to around 4.6% by late 2026, reflecting modest hiring amid slower labour-force growth. The shift points to a labour market that is softening gradually rather than sharply.
Policy backdrop
The trajectory matters for the Federal Reserve, which is weighing a still-elevated inflation picture against a cooling jobs market as it sets policy. A measured rise in unemployment would fit the soft-landing narrative many policymakers hope for.
Sources: U.S. Bank, SIEPR.